diff --git a/federationsender/statistics/statistics.go b/federationsender/statistics/statistics.go
index 0dd8da20..a574ceff 100644
--- a/federationsender/statistics/statistics.go
+++ b/federationsender/statistics/statistics.go
@@ -66,10 +66,16 @@ type ServerStatistics struct {
 	serverName     gomatrixserverlib.ServerName //
 	blacklisted    atomic.Bool                  // is the node blacklisted
 	backoffStarted atomic.Bool                  // is the backoff started
+	backoffUntil   atomic.Value                 // time.Time until this backoff interval ends
 	backoffCount   atomic.Uint32                // number of times BackoffDuration has been called
 	successCounter atomic.Uint32                // how many times have we succeeded?
 }
 
+// duration returns how long the next backoff interval should be.
+func (s *ServerStatistics) duration(count uint32) time.Duration {
+	return time.Second * time.Duration(math.Exp2(float64(count)))
+}
+
 // Success updates the server statistics with a new successful
 // attempt, which increases the sent counter and resets the idle and
 // failure counters. If a host was blacklisted at this point then
@@ -88,11 +94,36 @@ func (s *ServerStatistics) Success() {
 
 // Failure marks a failure and starts backing off if needed.
 // The next call to BackoffIfRequired will do the right thing
-// after this.
-func (s *ServerStatistics) Failure() {
+// after this. It will return the time that the current failure
+// will result in backoff waiting until, and a bool signalling
+// whether we have blacklisted and therefore to give up.
+func (s *ServerStatistics) Failure() (time.Time, bool) {
+	// If we aren't already backing off, this call will start
+	// a new backoff period. Reset the counter to 0 so that
+	// we backoff only for short periods of time to start with.
 	if s.backoffStarted.CAS(false, true) {
 		s.backoffCount.Store(0)
 	}
+
+	// Check if we have blacklisted this node.
+	if s.blacklisted.Load() {
+		return time.Now(), true
+	}
+
+	// If we're already backing off and we haven't yet surpassed
+	// the deadline then return that. Repeated calls to Failure
+	// within a single backoff interval will have no side effects.
+	if until, ok := s.backoffUntil.Load().(time.Time); ok && !time.Now().After(until) {
+		return until, false
+	}
+
+	// We're either backing off and have passed the deadline, or
+	// we aren't backing off, so work out what the next interval
+	// will be.
+	count := s.backoffCount.Load()
+	until := time.Now().Add(s.duration(count))
+	s.backoffUntil.Store(until)
+	return until, false
 }
 
 // BackoffIfRequired will block for as long as the current
@@ -102,11 +133,8 @@ func (s *ServerStatistics) BackoffIfRequired(backingOff atomic.Bool, interrupt <
 		return 0, false
 	}
 
-	// Work out how many times we've backed off so far.
-	count := s.backoffCount.Inc()
-	duration := time.Second * time.Duration(math.Exp2(float64(count)))
-
 	// Work out if we should be blacklisting at this point.
+	count := s.backoffCount.Inc()
 	if count >= s.statistics.FailuresUntilBlacklist {
 		// We've exceeded the maximum amount of times we're willing
 		// to back off, which is probably in the region of hours by
@@ -118,9 +146,14 @@ func (s *ServerStatistics) BackoffIfRequired(backingOff atomic.Bool, interrupt <
 				logrus.WithError(err).Errorf("Failed to add %q to blacklist", s.serverName)
 			}
 		}
-		return duration, true
+		return 0, true
 	}
 
+	// Work out when we should wait until.
+	duration := s.duration(count)
+	until := time.Now().Add(duration)
+	s.backoffUntil.Store(until)
+
 	// Notify the destination queue that we're backing off now.
 	backingOff.Store(true)
 	defer backingOff.Store(false)
diff --git a/federationsender/statistics/statistics_test.go b/federationsender/statistics/statistics_test.go
index 9050662e..7e083de6 100644
--- a/federationsender/statistics/statistics_test.go
+++ b/federationsender/statistics/statistics_test.go
@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ import (
 
 func TestBackoff(t *testing.T) {
 	stats := Statistics{
-		FailuresUntilBlacklist: 5,
+		FailuresUntilBlacklist: 7,
 	}
 	server := ServerStatistics{
 		statistics: &stats,
@@ -41,10 +41,20 @@ func TestBackoff(t *testing.T) {
 		// Get the duration.
 		duration, blacklist := server.BackoffIfRequired(backingOff, interrupt)
 
+		// Register another failure for good measure. This should have no
+		// side effects since a backoff is already in progress. If it does
+		// then we'll fail.
+		until, blacklisted := server.Failure()
+		if time.Until(until) > duration {
+			t.Fatal("Failure produced unexpected side effect when it shouldn't have")
+		}
+
 		// Check if we should be blacklisted by now.
-		if i > stats.FailuresUntilBlacklist {
+		if i >= stats.FailuresUntilBlacklist {
 			if !blacklist {
 				t.Fatalf("Backoff %d should have resulted in blacklist but didn't", i)
+			} else if blacklist != blacklisted {
+				t.Fatalf("BackoffIfRequired and Failure returned different blacklist values")
 			} else {
 				t.Logf("Backoff %d is blacklisted as expected", i)
 				continue